Publications / Global Transformation
Society on Strike
In 2026, we face a deepening turn toward Barbarization scenarios, the long-anticipated reaction to Conventional Worlds in crisis. As far-right authoritarian forces grow across countries and work to dismantle systems of democratic accountability, the question becomes, what tools become available to steer us away from descent and toward a Great Transition?
Labor scholar Jeremy Brecher’s new essay, “Society on Strike: A Last Defense Against Tyranny?,” explores the possibilities for resistance under worst-case conditions. Drawing on historical antecedents, he probes the possible role of the mass social strike as a way to oust authoritarian regimes at key inflection points. Just as labor strikes withdraw cooperation at the workplace, a social strike does so for society writ large.
Featuring an opening essay from Jeremy Brecher and comments from Antonio Roman-Alcalá, Gwendolyn Hallsmith, Tim Hollo, Bonn Juego, Ben Manski, Francine Mestrum, Valentine M. Moghadam, Ronaldo Munck, William Robinson, Guy Standing, Noha Tarek Hassan, and Biljana Vankovska.
Memoirs of Global Engagement
- Biko Agozino1
- Vicki Assevero7
- Asoka Bandarage13
- J. Baird Callicott15
- Robert Costanza22
- Eileen Crist27
- Zillah Eisenstein32
- Arturo Escobar36
- Richard Falk45
- Gilberto Gallopín52
- Herman Greene65
- Dorothy Guerrero72
- Tarik Günersel79
- Don Hall82
- Al Hammond84
- Wendy Harcourt85
- Aaron Karp87
- Kathleen Kesson90
- Evelin Lindner94
- Brendan Mackey99
- Rasigan Maharajh103
- Mary Mellor106
- Francine Mestrum112
- Valentine M. Moghadam116
- Ruben Nelson122
- Helena Norberg-Hodge127
- Richard Norgaard135
- David W. Orr140
- Heikki Patomäki144
- Kate Pickett148
- Joe Ravetz151
- Isabel Rimanoczy159
- Gus Speth161
- Peter Sterling168
- Mimi Stokes174
- Tobias Troll179
- Sandra Waddock181
- Stewart Wallis185
- Victor Wallis189
- Allen White194
- Lawrence Wittner199
What’s Next for the Global Movement?
The global “polycrisis” is spreading a zeitgeist of fear, despair, and reaction. But it also is sparking social energy for building a civilization centered around people, peace, and planet—a harbinger of a global citizens movement. The urgent task is to bring this critical social actor, now waiting in the wings, to the center of the global stage. But how? Our panel of strategists propose next steps toward crystallizing a movement for systemic change.
Featuring comments from Jeremy Brecher, John Bunzl, Helen Camakaris, Guy Dauncey, Riane Eisler, Peter Evans, Dorothy Guerrero, Don Hall, Joseph Fiksel, Jeffrey Halper, Tim Hollo, Michael Karlberg, Steven Klees, Jeremy Lent, Francine Mestrum, Ronaldo Munck, Heikki Patomäki, Jose Ramos, Vishwas Satgar, Gus Speth, Guy Standing, Sandra Waddock, and Stewart Wallis.
Experiments in Movement Unity
Global Discontinuity: Time for a Paradigm Shift in Global Scenario Analysis
The evolutionary paths of social-ecological systems comprise periods of structural continuity punctuated by moments of convulsive change. Various forms of systemic global shock could materialize in the coming decades, triggered by the climate crisis, social disruption, economic breakdown, financial collapse, nuclear conflict, or pandemics. The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic stands as a real-time example of an interruption of historic continuity. More hopefully, deep institutional and cultural shifts could rapidly usher in more resilient forms of global civilization. These plausible possibilities challenge scenario studies to spotlight discontinuous futures, an imperative that has not been adequately met. Several factors—for example, gradualist theories of change, scientific reticence, the lure of quantitative tractability, embeddedness in policymaking processes—have rendered mainstream scenario analysis ill-suited to the task. The emphasis on continuity fails to alert decision makers and the public to the risks and opportunities latent in our singular historical moment. A shift to a paradigm that foregrounds discontinuity is long overdue, calling for efforts to broaden the base of persons involved; devote more attention to balancing narrative storytelling and a broader range of quantitative methods; and apply and develop methods to explicitly consider discontinuities in global scenario development.
Published in Sustainability 15, no. 17 (2023): 12950, https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/17/12950.
Which Future Are We Living In?
Twenty years ago, the essay Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead imagined alternative scenarios for the twenty-first century. Now, we stand partway into that unknown future, witnesses to the actual path of history (so far). Where are we? Where are we headed?
Technology and the Future
Visions of a New Political Order
Can Human Solidarity Globalize?
Creating a decent civilization in this century depends on human identity expanding to the scale of the planet. Pervasive divisions leave many pessimistic that this can happen. Still, in the course of social evolution, the circle of identity has ballooned from clans and tribes to nations and beyond, while science has confirmed the key role of cooperation.
Now, the contemporary condition of shared destiny urges a global locus for institutions, reciprocity, and empathy. Richard Falk’s opening essay reflects on a “politics of impossibility” for realizing this imperative. Two panels weigh in, the first with a range of theoretical perspectives and the second with pragmatic ways forward.
Panel 1: Debating the Prospects, featuring David Barash, Upendra Baxi, Akeel Bilgrami, Guy Dauncey, Michael Karlberg, Alexander Lautensach, Radmila Nakarada, Micha Narberhaus, Heikki Patomäki, Shahrzad Sabet, Charlene Spretnak, and Martha Van Der Bly.
Panel 2: Making It Happen, featuring Jeremy Brecher, Luis Cabrera, Zillah Eisenstein, David Featherstone, Catherine Keller, Jing Lin, Francine Mestrum, Valentine M. Moghadam, Lester Edwin J. Ruiz, Jackie Smith, Biljana Vankovska, and Lawrence Wittner.
The Pedagogy of Transition
The times call for pedagogies that cultivate integrated knowledge and global citizenship, yet we continue to educate for a world we don’t want. We need educational systems in the long term aligned with new imperatives, while in the near term offering innovative curricula and teaching within existing systems. The forward-looking educators on this Forum’s panels—Frameworks and Practices—probe each of these fronts.
Opening essay by Stephen Sterling
Panel 1: Frameworks, featuring Stephen Sterling, Guy Dauncey, Richard Falk, Frank Fischer, Bonn Juego, Kathleen Kesson, Hikaru Komatsu, Alexander Lautensach, Johnny Lupinacci, Alan Mandell, David Orr, Blake Poland, Jeremy Rappleye, Iveta Silova, Vandana Singh, Rajesh Tandon, and Arjen Wals.
Panel 2: Practices, featuring Biko Agozino, Timothy Bedford, Gabriel Cámara, David Christian, John Foran, Kim Fortun, Mike Gismondi, Terry Irwin, Michael Karlberg, Isabel Rimanoczy, John Robinson, Doug Schuler, Anne Snick, Mary Evelyn Tucker, and A.R. Vasavi.
Interrogating the Anthropocene
Human activity has pushed Earth into a hostile new geological epoch, which scientists have christened “the Anthropocene.” This jolt to the planet also jolts the culture, sparking reconsideration of who we are, where we are going, and how we must act.
The question before this GTI Forum: If we care about building a decent future, how should we think about the Anthropocene? An opening essay offers answers, then two panels respond, underscoring the lessons and limitations of the Anthropocene narrative.
Panel 1: A Compelling Narrative, featuring Maurie Cohen, Herman Daly, Uchita de Zoysa, Olivier Hamant, Clive Hamilton, Debbie Kasper, Heikki Patomäki, Stephen Purdey, Mimi Stokes, and Pella Thiel
Panel 2: A Misconceived Narrative, featuring Greg Anderson, Jeremy Baskin, Arturo Escobar, Richard Falk, Lisi Krall, Fred Magdoff, Karl-Ludwig Schibel, Erik Swyngedouw, Martha Van Der Bly, and Tim Weiskel.
Universal Basic Income: Has the Time Come?
The Pandemic and the Future
How will today’s crisis alter the shape of tomorrow’s world? Which scenario—Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, Great Transition—has become more likely? How can we seize the moment to propel transformation?
Featuring opening reflections from Paul Raskin and comments from Franck Amalric, Asoka Bandarage, Walden Bello, Kavita Byrd, Maurie Cohen, Arthur Dahl, Frank Fischer, Herman Greene, Shalmali Guttal, Gwendolyn Hallsmith, Sahan Karatasli, Jeremy Lent, Evelin Lindner, George Liodakis, Ruben Nelson, Marcus Oxley, Kate Pickett, Mamphela Ramphele, Joe Ravetz, John Robinson, Vishwas Satgar, Mimi Stokes, Rob Swart, and Tim Weiskel.
Excluded Futures: The Continuity Bias in Scenario Assessments
Recovering a comprehensive perspective on the global possible can reinvigorate debate on the kind of transformation needed, broaden the action agenda, and stimulate innovative research for illuminating our indeterminate future.
Planetize the Movement!
In our fraught time, we need coordinated action for deep social and ecological change more than ever. How can we build a unified global movement? Who will change the world?
Featuring opening reflections from Valentine Moghadam and comments from Christopher Chase-Dunn, Donatella Della Porta, Richard Falk, Bonn Juego, Ashish Kothari, Francine Mestrum, Heikki Patomäki, William I. Robinson, Guy Standing, and Noha Tarek.
A Great Ethics Transition
A Great Transition must rise on core ethical values attuned to an interdependent world facing a common destiny. What are the elements of this foundation, and how do we build it?
Featuring opening reflections from Brendan Mackey and comments from Ian Angus, Olivia Bina, Kavita Byrd, Luis Cabrera, J. Baird Callicott, Ron Engel, Richard Falk, Roger Gottlieb, Gwendolyn Hallsmith, Joel Kassiola, Jeremy Lent, Steven Rockefeller, Roz Savage, Kathryn Sikkink, and Mary Evelyn Tucker.`
Farewell to the World Social Forum?
For nearly two decades, the WSF has served as a vital gathering space for international activists seeking “another world,” but now may be losing momentum. In this GTI Forum, a panel of WSF veterans appraise its past, critique its present, and debate its future.
Featuring opening reflections from Roberto Savio and comments from Olivier Consolo, Rita Freire, Pierre George, Candido Grzybowski, Gustave Massiah, Meena Menon, Francine Mestrum, Thomas Ponniah, Pablo Solón & Mary Louise Malig, and Gina Vargas.
Another Europe Is Possible
The former Greek Minister of Finance describes his vision for a democratized European Union, the political challenge, and the new transnational movement working for another Europe.
Think Globally, Act Locally?
What’s Next for the Climate Movement?
Planetizing the Labor Movement
The Cosmopolitan Impulse in an Entangled World
Moral philosopher Kwame Anthony Appiah discusses the importance of cultivating a “rooted cosmopolitanism.”
Time for a World Political Party?
In a world of shared global risks, we need transnational institutions and governance mechanisms for common action. To that end, Heikki Patomäki makes the case for building a world political party. Our panel discusses whether a political party is the best structure for aligning the myriad movements fighting for systemic change.
The Case for Ecosocialism
Is a Great Transition inherently a post-capitalist future? Ecosocialists think so, putting forth a vision that transcends both market-based approaches to sustainability and growth-oriented socialism. Michael Löwy’s essay makes the case, and our panel debates the possibilities and limitations of the framework.
Featuring comments from John Bellamy Foster, Herman Daly, Kerryn Higgs, Giorgos Kallis, Alex Khasnabish, Ashish Kothari, Fred Magdoff, Simon Mair, Mary Mellor, and Vishwas Satgar.
Debating the Precariat
The globalization, automation, and financialization of the economy have created an increasingly unequal class structure. The rise of the gig economy and unstable work arrangements have created a “precariat,” a new class that Guy Standing argues has truly revolutionary potential. Our panel discusses how new this class really is and what economic reforms and actors can stop the swell of inequality.
Featuring comments from Bill Fletcher Jr., Nancy Folbre, Azfar Khan, Alexandra Köves, George Liodakis, Ronaldo Munck, William I. Robinson, Pritam Singh, Eva-Maria Swidler, and Alison Tate and Evelyn Astor.
Living on the Frontlines of Resistance
Activist Medea Benjamin talks about her life at the forefront of the fight for peace and justice, and the need now more than ever to organize beyond borders.
Serving the Earth, Serving One Another
How to Ban the Bomb
Nuclear weapons are irreconcilable with a Great Transition future, as they skew social priorities and exacerbate geopolitical tensions and power imbalances. David Krieger underscores the importance of the “zero option” and an emboldened disarmament movement working together with other movements fighting for systemic change. Our panel discusses the foundations of a more just paradigm for global security.
Empire and Multitude: Shaping Our Century
In a world of diminished nation-states and global capital, social movements need to think and act differently. Michael Hardt explores how.
Feminism and Revolution
The feminist movement has grown more inclusive and systemic, recognizing the need for an intertwined fight against patriarchy, capitalism, and other sources of oppression. Julie Matthaei traces the history of this evolution and emphasizes the necessity of a solidarity politics and economics to a Great Transition. Our panel discusses what we can learn from feminist theory and organizing.
On the Cosmopolitan Path
Democracy has spread far and wide, but has not yet reached the global level, a dangerous failure in an interdependent world. How do we achieve just and democratic global governance? Political theorist Daniele Archibugi points the way.
On the Frontier of Human Rights
Farewell to Development
The alter-globalization mantra of “a world where many worlds fit” has inspired new organizing and thinking across Latin America. Leading “post-development” theorist Arturo Escobar surveys this fight for pluralism and justice.
Beyond Development
The indigenous concept of Vivir Bien offers a cosmovision of living in harmony with nature and one another. However, recently, the term has been coopted by governments wedded to conventional development. Pablo Solón explains the foundations and potential of this alternative to development, and our panel explores how Vivir Bien and kindred movements can shape our visions and strategy.
Featuring comments from David Barkin, Nnimmo Bassey, Adrian Beling, Ana Estefanía Carballo, Eduardo Gudynas, Holly Hanson, Aaron Karp, Helena Norberg-Hodge, and Neera Singh.
The Fight for a New Economy
It becomes clearer every day that our economy is failing to serve people and planet. Stewart Wallis, former executive director of the New Economics Foundation, describes a new economy and new efforts to galvanize it.
The Problem of Action
How can we envision a systemic global movement, and what initiatives can hasten its coalescence? Paul Raskin poses these and other essential questions, and our panel discusses the forms and structures of collective action necessary for building a decent planetary civilization in the twenty-first century.
Can The Third World Lead the World?
In a multipolar world, developing nations like Brazil are playing a larger role in international diplomacy. Former Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim offers insights from the front line.
Global Government Revisited
State sovereignty poses a continual challenge to the realization of human rights, as states have unequal capabilities and interests in protecting their citizens’ rights. Luis Cabrera makes the case for enhanced regional and global political integration—and eventually a democratic world government—as the necessary solution. Our panel discusses the limitations of the state system, the recent trajectory toward greater integration, and what the future can and should hold.
Let a Thousand Currencies Bloom
Monoculture can be risky, whether in agriculture or in money. Complementary currencies can help undergird an economy oriented toward people rather than profit.
Money for the People
If we want a more just and sustainable economy and economics, we will need to rethink our approach to money. Mary Mellor argues that the privatization of money has been the main driver of social and ecological exploitation, and only a democratic system of public money can help us achieve systemic changes. Our panel discusses the future of money and finance and the role of democratization, decentralization, and public control.
Development for Whom?
The conventional development model is failing the poor and the environment. An alternative model, rooted in a more holistic understanding of society, can deliver both shared prosperity and sustainability.
Global Capitalism
William I. Robinson explores the emergence of a new era of transnational capital and how it has fueled rising inequality and authoritarianism. Our panel discusses whether there is anything in capitalism worth saving, what other factors are shaping global crises, and what economic structures can steer toward a better world.
How to Kick the Growth Addiction
The author of Prosperity Without Growth discusses why we need to get past the obsession with economic growth—and the capitalist system that spawns it.
Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization
We have entered the Planetary Phase of Civilization. Strands of interdependence are weaving humanity and Earth into a single community of fate—the overarching proto-country herein christened Earthland. In the unsettled twenty-first century, the drama of social evolution will play out on a world stage with the perils many and dark premonitions all too plausible.
Still, a Great Transition to a planetary civilization of enriched lives and a healthy planet remains possible. But how? What forms of collective action and consciousness can redirect us toward such a future? Who will lead the charge? What might such a world look like?
Journey to Earthland offers answers. It clarifies the world-historical challenge; explains the critical role of a global citizens movement in advancing social transformation; and paints a picture of the kind of flourishing civilization that might lie on the other side of a Great Transition.
In this pivotal moment, the odyssey to a different world is underway, yet the ultimate destination depends on choices and struggles yet to come. Acting to prevent the futures we dread is where our work must begin. But the larger task is to foster the finer Earthland we and our descendants deserve.
Ending Ecocide
Toward Global Political Integration: Time for a World Parliamentary Assembly
We will need a democratic world government to adequately address shared planetary risks and opportunities in this century. A critical strategic step toward that end would be the formation of a global parliamentary assembly.
The University of Tomorrow?
The Earth Charter at 15: A Spiritual Lens on Sustainability
The leader in the development of the Earth Charter discusses its legacy and prospects, as well as his own influences and evolution as an educator, advocate, and scholar in the nexus of ethics, spirituality, and the environment.
Marxism and Ecology
John Bellamy Foster explores the resonances of Marxist and ecological thought and argues for an ecological critique of capitalism rooted in Marxist theory. Our panelists discuss the appropriate theoretical underpinnings of the fight for equitable and sustainable human development.
Common Wealth Trusts
Change Agent: Evolution of a Systems Champion
Gus Speth reflects on his distinguished career in environmental advocacy, public service, and higher education, discusses his new memoir Angels by the River, and reflects on the prospects for systemic change in the twenty-first century.
Dialogical Citizenship: Dancing Toward Solidarity
Our increasingly interdependent world demands stronger global governance rooted in a sense of global citizenship. Nurturing such an enlarged identity requires balancing universalism and pluralism through a dialogical process of reconciliation.
Global Scenarios: Explorations in the Scientific Imagination
Global futures pioneer Gilberto Gallopín discusses the origins of contemporary global scenario analysis, the ways worldviews can influence our sense of the future, and how the scenario approach offers a powerful way to envision unconventional tomorrows and guide actions today.
Planetary Boundaries and Social Change
Growing, Growing, Gone: Reaching the Limits
The Limits to Growth, released in 1972, has profoundly influenced environmental research and discourse over the past four decades. Allen White of the Tellus Institute talks with Dennis Meadows, one of its co-authors, about the genesis of the report and its lessons for understanding and managing our uncertain and perilous global future.
Uniting Nations: The UN at a Crossroads
The Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme comments on pivotal forthcoming international developments—the launch of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris climate negotiations—and the UN’s role in fostering a sustainable future.
The Degrowth Debate
Climate: The Crisis and the Movement
Naomi Klein indicts the capitalist economic system for bringing us to the brink of climate crisis and calls for building a movement for a more equitable and sustainable alternative.
Religion and Transformation
Religious systems of meaning, and the collective practices that derive from them, will either resist or propel efforts toward a more just and sustainable social order. Michael Karlberg offers a reconceptualization of religion as a partner for such a future. Our panelists discuss the role that religion, spirituality, and systems of meaning can play in social transformation.
A Great Transition? Where We Stand
Paul Raskin revisits the scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Group and asks, which future are we living in? Despite proliferating perils, he argues, a Great Transition remains plausible—if an emerging social actor moves to center stage.
Voyage of Citizen Pilgrims
The state-centric world order is incapable of addressing today’s crises. Still, establishing efficacious transnational political institutions requires the emergence of a global community of world citizens. Richard Falk makes the case for the concept of the “citizen pilgrim” to reimagine citizenship to serve the universal human interest. Our panelists assess the potentials of and obstacles to expansive new forms of political action and solidarity.
Systems Thinking and System Change
An interview with Fritjof Capra, the founding director of the Center for Ecoliteracy, about the emergence of systems thinking, the root causes of today’s social and environmental problems, and how to change the system itself.
Democracy from the Grassroots
Sustainable and equitable alternatives to the economic status quo are emerging on the ground. Ashish Kothari outlines the vision and practice of one such alternative in India: radical ecological democracy. Our panelists discuss the promise of decentralized movements and models and how best to link them together and ground them in shared values.
Featuring comments from David Barkin, Federico Demaria, Helena Norberg-Hodge, and Neera Singh.
The Future International Civil Society Organization
An interview with Burkhard Gnärig, the Executive Director of the International Civil Society Centre, about the current landscape of international civil society organizations (ICSOs) and what they must do to adapt to a world filled with new challenges and opportunities.
Global Citizenship Now
The future necessitates greater global governance than ever before. Robert Paehlke explains why an ethos of global citizenship and the democratization of international relations are essential to building public support. Our panelists discuss how to foster the spread of a global political identity.
Boiling Point: Multiple Crises and the Democratic Deficit
An interview with Kumi Naidoo, International Executive Director of Greenpeace International, about how to fix the current democratic deficit and strengthen the role of civil society in pushing for fundamental change.
Human Rights in the Age of Climate Change
An interview with the former President of Ireland and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights about how to build the political will to address the climate crisis and why a rights-based approach must lie at the core of twenty-first-century development.
Reclaiming the Commons
The commons paradigm offers a way to move past the binary of market and state in support of a democratic, decentralized, and ecologically responsible approach to meeting basic needs. David Bollier explains how the commons movement has flourished and can change our relationships to nature and each other. Our panelists discuss the philosophy and politics of this perspective.
From Business Entrepreneur to Social Entrepreneur
World Social Forum co-founder Oded Grajew discusses his career transformation, the history of the WSF, and what lies ahead.
Contours of a Resilient Global Future
Humanity confronts a daunting double challenge in the twenty-first century: meeting widely-held aspirations for equitable human development while preserving the biophysical integrity of Earth systems. Extant scientific attempts to quantify futures that address these sustainability challenges are often not comprehensive across environmental and social drivers of global change, or rely on quantification methods that largely exclude deep social, cultural, economic, and technological shifts, leading to a constrained set of possibilities. This article combines three previously separate streams of inquiry—scenario analysis, planetary boundaries, and targets for human development—to show that there are plausible, diverse scenarios that remain within Earth’s safe bio-physical operating space and achieve a variety of development targets. However, dramatic social and technological changes are required to avert the social-ecological risks of a conventional development trajectory.
Game On: The Basis of Hope in a Time of Despair
In a world at risk, those attuned to the dangers can feel a powerful temptation to sound apocalyptic alarms to awaken the somnolent. Arousing fear, though, without offering a compelling vision of a better path, awakens only dispiriting anguish and despair. This pessimism is not so much wrong as disempowering. The basis for hope rests on two kinds of arguments, one scientific, the other historical. Quantitative simulation of alternative scenarios shows that sufficient environmental capacity and adequate technical means remain to reach a flourishing planetary civilization. Moreover, the precondition for this Great Transition is found in the shared risks and opportunities an interdependent global system now confronts. In our historical moment, the world has become a single community of fate, the foundation for cultural and institutional transformation. Although catastrophic premonitions cannot be logically refuted, they can be defied in spirit and negated in practice: pragmatic hope is the antidote to dystopian despair.
Premises for a New Economy
In an ecologically constrained world, both the global North and the global South need to consider new obligations and limits. A basic commitment to social justice requires that the claims of the poor, chiefly residing in the South, take precedence over the claims of the rich, chiefly residing in the North. The scope for further growth to contribute to well-being in affluent regions is quite limited, so the costs to the North of reducing growth may be modest—especially if a new economy is organized to provide the economic basis of a good life based on precepts other than more, more, and still more. While recognizing a priority for the poor imposes obligations on the North, this recognition cannot be a license for the South to replicate the wasteful disregard for ecosystem boundaries or the claims of the disadvantaged that has characterized growth in the North.
Scenes from the Great Transition
Mandela City, 2084 – The world today, a century after George Orwell’s nightmare year, stands as living refutation of the apocalyptic premonitions that once haunted dreams of the future. This dispatch from our awakened future surveys the contemporary moment, scenes in the unfolding drama we call the Great Transition.
Originally published in Solutions 3, no. 4 (2012): 11-17.
Transforming Innovation for Sustainability
As the world gears up for the Rio + 20 conference in June 2012, many are pinning hopes on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a concrete outcome. Yet there is little clarity on what SDGs should involve, who should set them, and how they can be realized in practice. This commentary article draws on recent research by the STEPS Centre, the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and Tellus Institute to argue that Sustainable Development Goals that keep human societies within a “safe operating space” are now urgently needed. However, delivering on these requires a radically new approach to innovation that gives far greater recognition and power to grassroots actors and processes, involving them within an inclusive, multiscale innovation politics.
Beyond the Growth Paradigm: Creating a Unified Progressive Politics
The US political economy is failing across a broad front—environmental, social, economical, and political. Deep, systemic change is needed to transition to a new economy, one where the acknowledged priority is to sustain human and natural communities. Policies are available to effect this transformation and to temper economic growth and consumerism while simultaneously improving social well-being and quality of life, but a new politics involving a coalescence of progressive communities is needed to realize these policies. Yet, on the key issue of economic growth, differing positions among American liberals and environmentalists loom, a major barrier to progressive fusion. This Perspective proposes a starting point for forging a common platform and agenda around which both liberals and environmentalists can rally.
Civil Society Organizations: Time for Systemic Strategies
Myriad civil society organizations (CSOs) are addressing the full range of environmental and social problems, including climate change, food insecurity, droughts, resource scarcity, and poverty. Despite many successes, these perilous problems (and more) constitute a sustainability crisis that calls into question the efficacy of current CSO strategies. More transformative approaches, drawing on cutting-edge theory and practice, are required for CSOs to fulfill their role of helping humanity meet contemporary challenges. The Great Transition scenario offers a holistic framework for changing course.
Higher Education in an Unsettled Century: Handmaiden or Pathmaker?
In an increasingly interdependent and turbulent world, we confront a future of great uncertainty. The perils are many, yet the opportunity remains for a fundamental change in ways of thinking and organizing society. In this quest, higher education can play a transformative role in the domains of education, understanding, and action, and especially the cultivation of informed and thoughtful global citizens. But first it must transform itself.
Published in Higher Education in the World 4: Higher Education’s Commitment to Sustainability: from Understanding to Action, edited by Miquel Barceló, 12-15. Barcelona: Global University Network for Innovation (GUNi), 2012.
Imagine All the People: Advancing a Global Citizens Movement
How to change the world? Those concerned about the dangerous drift of global development are asking this question with increasing urgency. Dominant institutions have proved too timorous or too venal for meeting the environmental and social challenges of our time. Instead, an adequate response requires us to imagine the awakening of a new social actor: a coordinated global citizens movement (GCM) struggling on all fronts toward a just and sustainable planetary civilization.
Originally published in Kosmos Journal (Spring/Summer 2011): 4-6.
The Great Transition: Journey of an Idea
The jury is still out on whether the Great Transition Initiative’s hoped-for Great Transition will be realized. Its achievement rests on the emergence of a planetary movement of concerned citizens buoyed by the conviction that together they can change the world.
Originally published in International Institute for Sustainable Development, Strategy for Achieving Transformative Change: Better Living for All—Sustainably: 2010-2011 Annual Report (Winnipeg, Canada: IISD, 2011), 6-7.
The Quality of Development Index: A New Headline Indicator of Progress
This paper introduces and applies a new Quality of Development Index (QDI). The QDI provides a national-level measure of progress that reflects changes related to well-being, community, and the environment. The paper argues generally for a more explicit linkage between indicators of progress and values, and for a larger role for such indicators in quantitative scenario-based visioning exercises. The report recommends use of the QDI in place of the Gross Domestic Product, the current de facto headline indicator of progress.
Interview on Making the Great Transition
Anthony Leiserowitz, Director of Strategic Initiatives at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies and Director of the Yale Project on Climate Change, interviews Dr. Paul Raskin, founding director of the Tellus Institute and founder of the Great Transition Initiative, about alternative global futures and ways to transition to a sustainable and livable planetary civilization for Yale’s program “Visions of a Sustainable World.”
Originally published in Solutions, June 2010, https://thesolutionsjournal.com/?p=742.
Planetary Praxis: On Rhyming Hope and History
Amidst growing environmental, economic, and social instability, there remains hope for a transition to a tolerant, just, and ecologically resilient global civilization. However, such a transition is feasible only if human thought and action rise to embrace one human family on one integral planet. This essay identifies a “global citizens movement” as the critical actor for the transition, arguing that the conditions of the twenty-first century will make such a cultural and political formation increasingly feasible and suggesting strategic actions for accelerating its crystallization.
Originally published in Stephen Kellert and James Gustave Speth, eds., The Coming Transformation: Values to Sustain Human and Natural Communities (New Haven, CT: Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, 2009).
The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability
This study explores possible pathways to sustainability by considering, in quantitative form, four contrasting scenarios for the twenty-first century. The analysis reveals vividly the risks of conventional development approaches and the real danger of socio-ecological descent into a future of diminished human and ecological well-being. Nonetheless, the paper underscores that a Great Transition scenario—turning toward a civilization of enhanced human well-being and environmental resilience—remains an option, and it identifies a suite of changes in strategic policies and human values for getting there.
Preliminary report available here.
Technical documentation available here.
Originally published in Sustainability 2, no. 8 (2010): 2626-2651.
We the People of Earth: Toward Global Democracy
We confront daunting twenty-first century challenges hobbled by twentieth century institutions. In a world ever more interdependent, deepening global-scale risks—climate change, financial instability, terrorism, to name a few—threaten the planetary commonwealth, even the continuity of civilization. Yet coherent and timely responses lie beyond the grasp of our myopic and disputatious state-centric political order. Closing this perilous gap between obsolete geopolitics and emerging geo-realities delineates an urgent political endeavor: constructing a legitimate and effective system of world governance. Key steps on that path involve reforming the United Nations and nurturing new venues for the meaningful exercise of global citizenship.
World Trade: A New Direction
Global trade negotiations are moribund, with the World Trade Organization’s agenda stalled and the neoliberal ideology it serves confronted by a rising chorus of criticism. The trading system, built on the premise that promoting commercial interests necessarily advances the general interest, instead has fed a multifaceted planetary crisis. At this juncture, trade policy must find a new way forward. The key to this change lies in reversing the priority that in the past made free trade an end in itself, thereby consigning the larger goal of sustainable development to an afterthought. From now on, economic, social, and environmental sustainability goals should set the criteria for designing and applying multilateral trade rules. We suggest concrete steps to help transform the WTO from an agent of privilege and profit into a force for an equitable, peaceful, and resilient world.
Future
All cultures are infused with myths and prophecies that express humankind’s expectations and fears for the future. By the latter decades of the twentieth century, realization spread that without sustainable practices the human enterprise more and more compromised the ecosphere’s capacity to support future life. The project of sustainability invites us to collectively and self-consciously construct the future: to generate plausible images of the world decades from now, establish collective goals, and adapt current choices and behaviors for the journey. New methods like scenario analysis can help us to explore such possible futures as well as rekindle age-old hopes for an organic and interdependent global civilization, no longer as abstract hope, but as necessity for a resilient and livable future.
Originally published in Berkshire Encyclopedia of Sustainability, vol. 1 of The Spirit of Sustainability, edited by William Jenkins (Great Barrington, MA: Berkshire Publishing, 2009).
World Lines: A Framework for Exploring Global Pathways
Despite recent advancements in sustainability research, the study of the dynamics and prospects of co-evolving human and ecological systems, the discipline still lacks an overarching theoretical framework. Scenario analysis offers a promising integrative approach, and scenario methods have been improved by a wave of new studies. Still, these studies remain most compelling in their opening frames, where quantitative modeling can track unfolding trends, and their closing frames, where qualitative description can provide rich descriptions of long-term social visions. Not surprisingly, given the formidable uncertainties, the trajectories between now and then remain poorly specified, if addressed at all. This paper suggests ways of thinking about these pathways and pivots, the world lines through the terra incognita between current global realities and alternative futures.
Originally published in Ecological Economics 65, no. 3 (2008): 461-470.
Global Politics and Institutions: A ‘Utopistic’ View
This paper emphasizes the political and institutional dimensions of a different possible world, one that conjoins the desires of progressive social movements everywhere and gestures towards a hopeful vision of new forms of collective action. Thus, it tries to outline the politics and institutions that would be most compatible with meeting humanity’s complex and manifold goals, even as other social, technological, and economic changes take place. Its primary focus is the institutional arrangements that would facilitate a democratic global politics in the future, but it also lays out some current trends that show promise towards realizing such a future.
Essay #3 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Strategic Corporate Initiative: Toward a Global Citizens Movement to Bring Corporations Back Under Control
There are tectonic stresses building beneath the surface of our society—from global warming to ecosystem destruction to rising inequality—that threaten a global earthquake unlike any we have seen in recent history. The root cause of most of these problems can be found in the excessive power of global corporations. This report aims to spark a debate among civil society organizations about the need for a unified movement of movements to bring corporations back under democratic control. Such unified movement could be the catalytic force to create a humane, sustainable, democratic society and economy.
Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement
Orion Kriegman examines the potential for a global citizens movement by drawing on relevant lessons from past and current social movements. He argues that, although the emergence of such a movement might not be probable, it is nonetheless possible at this historical moment of growing interdependence and collective risk. He addresses the missing ingredients for the development of such a movement and points to further avenues for assessing its possibilities.
Essay #15 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Feminist Praxis: Women’s Transnational and Place Based Struggles for Change
Wendy Harcourt et al. look at the context in which feminism is practiced by the women’s movements around the world. They present the Women and Politics of Place framework as an analytical approach that can inform our understanding of the many women’s networks engaged in the Great Transition. They then propose ideas for a feminist vision for the future built on realpolitik and feminist struggles for change.
Essay #11 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Great Transition Values: Present Attitudes, Future Changes
Robert Kates, Anthony Leiserowitz, and Thomas Parris analyze current public attitudes toward the three key values of a Great Transition: quality of life, human solidarity, and ecological sensibility. They discuss how the forces of population growth, globalization, technological innovation, climate change, and—importantly—surprise will influence such values along the path toward a Great Transition future.
Essay #9 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Resilience and Pluralism: Ecosystems and Society in a Great Transition
Elena Bennett and Nicolás Lucas discuss the increasing scale and rate of ecosystem change due to human impacts in the twentieth century as well as the unevenly distributed benefits and vulnerabilities from such change. They argue for the need to transcend the nation-state and the dominant economic growth paradigm in order to develop adequate policies and institutions for addressing the socio-ecological challenges of the coming decades.
Essay #14 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Security in the Great Transition
From the perspective of a historian writing in 2084, Charles Knight writes the history of how the world transitioned away from the paradigms of war and militarism and to a greater emphasis on cooperative security and “human security.” He discusses the institutional and cultural shifts that would effect such a non-violent and equitable world.
Essay #7 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
The Great Transition Today: A Report from the Future
Paul Raskin surveys the landscape of a Great Transition future from the perspective of an individual living in 2084. He emphasizes the preeminence of a triad of values—quality of life, human solidarity, and ecological sensibility—and shows how they, combined with a sense of world citizenship, have permeated political, social, and economic institutions.
Essay #2 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
The Role of Well-Being in a Great Transition
John Stutz analyzes available data on well-being, focusing on the three components of welfare, contentment, and freedom. He offers a vision of a future in which society has embraced the lessons learned from such analysis, particularly the importance of time affluence, and outlines a strategy to achieve a heightened quality of life through value changes, coalition building, and policy action.
Essay #10 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Trading into the Future: Rounding the Corner to Sustainable Development
Mark Halle explores the assumptions underlying the architecture of the multilateral trade regime and how it has both delivered and failed to deliver on the various promises of trade theory. He argues that sustainable development can be achieved by a more rigorous enforcement of and commitment to—rather than abandonment of—the espoused principles. He concludes by analyzing how trade would function in the three archetypal regions imagined in the Great Transition.
Essay #6 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Visions of Regional Economies in a Great Transition World
Rich Rosen and David Schweickart analyze the dominant models of capitalism and socialism from the twentieth century to identify key lessons learned that must be kept in mind in building a more just, equitable, and sustainable economic system. They then outline three model economic arrangements that would embody the values of a Great Transition future.
Essay #4 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
World Lines: Pathways, Pivots and the Global Future
Looking at the concurrence of global crises, Paul Raskin provides a theoretical framework for analyzing structural change in human-ecological systems. He explores the possible forms and interactions of two key uncertainties—the aforementioned crises and human intentionality—in the landscape of the future, as well as the various paths that could result. He concludes by highlighting prospects and strategies for the formation of a global movement rooted in a planetary ethos.
Essay #16 in the GTI Paper Series: Frontiers of a Great Transition
Global Scenarios in Historic Perspective in Scenario Assessment Report
This chapter reviews the historical context of scenarios, beginning with brief sketches of early scenario activity, from its post-World War II origins up to about a decade ago. It focuses in particular on the subset of environmental global scenario projects that have a public policy and scientific orientation, since these are of greatest interest to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Special consideration is given to the following post-1995 global scenario building exercises: Global Scenarios Group, Global Environment Outlook, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, World Water Vision, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. These scenarios, despite their diversity, are rooted in a common set of archetypal visions of the future: evolution, progression, and decline.
