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Quantitative Simulations

Quantitative Simulations

Scenario narratives describe qualitative features of a scenario such as prevailing values and institutions. Quantitative representations provide complementary insight by depicting population, economic, resource, and environmental patterns. Tellus has quantified four global scenarios in great detail: Market Forces, Policy Reform, Fortress World, and Great Transitions.

Click graphics below to explore the results:

Scenario overview

Futures in Motion

Data tables

The analysis was conducted using Tellus Institute’s PoleStar System. PoleStar was created for illuminating long-range, integrated, and highly uncertain scenarios. Conventional modeling projections are deterministic, relying on a set of equations calibrated to historic behavior and assumed to persist into the distant future. Consequently, they can explore only a narrow aperture around business-as-usual futures. PoleStar widens the lens by including discontinuous developments and revised notions of human well-being. PoleStar invites the user to imagine alternative social visions and explore paths that lead there.